Game Plan & Predictions

Let's have some fun today. I'm going to share my game plan and contingencies and take you through each height and tell you what I think will happen with some of the 15 guys entered. Since I only know eight of them that should be comical. SPOILER ALERT - the winner is Kirk Bentz of the USA with a jump of 4.20m (13' 9 1/4"). Let's proceed.

PEACE
I'm at peace because I have decided that I may make no attempt to vault between now and Kamloops. It will partly be up to the doctor on Monday but I've looked back over past records and I have gone 3-4 weeks without jumping before a meet with no issues. I'm pretty dialed in on my technique so it's more important to be healthy and I know/think I will. If I jump I risk progress in my rehab.

I said that if I had one more week before Reno I would be fine. Well where I am now would give me 2-3 weeks longer than I had before Reno. Lifting and running is going very well and I was able to do some bars today with no issues. The last time I was out four weeks before I jumped was before indoor nationals in Landover, Maryland last March. Here is my first jump of the meet. The bar is at 12' (3.66m) and I'm only running from 44' and it was good enough to win that day. http://www.bubbapv.com/Images/Bubba_USATF%20Win.mov I'm in a lot better shape than then, vaulting better and will be starting my run from 55' instead of 44'. I can live with not jumping if needed based on this.

MEET PROGRESSION
I'm going to follow my plan from the World Masters Games and come in conservatively at 3.60m (11' 9 3/4") on my 17.0. In Sydney it looked like this - http://www.bubbapv.com/Images/Sydney/360.MOV

Let me stop right now and tell you that I'm putting these videos in here because I'll need to relive those moments a million times technically if I'm not going to vault until March 6. I will also do all of my running and drills gripping on the end of a huge 1680 pole so I don't lose the run/plant feel. BTW - the wind was HORRIBLE in Sydney so this is a good baseline to look at.

At 3.70m (12' 1 1/2") I'll go to the 16.5, which is my largest glass pole before moving to my carbon series. I'm guessing 6-8 guys clear this height. In Sydney it looked like this - http://www.bubbapv.com/Images/Sydney/370.MOV You can see these poles look really small which allows me to not push my run but also let's be protect my arm on the early heights.

At 3.80m (12' 5 1/2") I will move to the 15.9 carbon pole. In Sydney I moved back to 65' but here I will stay at 55' because it will make me do things right and give my arm it's first test. Moving in a stride (2 steps) on the run gives you another 6" in height. That pole has become too small from 65'. Look at the difference between Sydney at 65' http://www.bubbapv.com/Images/Sydney/380.MOV and the Quintana Beach Vault http://www.bubbapv.com/Images/Quintana-09-Movs/BS-381.MOV from 55'. Much more blow off the pole from 55'. Five or six guys will clear here.

At 3.90m (12' 9 1/2") we will lose some vaulters. Maybe me if my arm doesn't hold out. I make no promises after my first attempt at 3.80m as that may very well be the height the arm lets go like it did on that pole in warm up at Reno. I hope not. If I survive 3.80m I will go back a stride to 65' and up a pole to the 15.7. Here is me on this pole and run at Sydney at 4.00m (13' 1 1/2") http://www.bubbapv.com/Images/Sydney/4m.MOV and again at 3.81 (12' 6") at Belton, Texas on January 2 - http://www.bubbapv.com/Images/Movs/12-6.MOV

At 4.00m we will have 2-3 clear, the medal winners. Here is me on my 15.4 from 65' at 3.99m (13' 1") on January 2, the same as I will be here - http://www.bubbapv.com/Images/Movs/13-1.MOV You have already seen me make 4m in Sydney on one pole smaller.

If by some miracle I'm still in one piece and over, at 4.10m (13' 5 1/4" - my PR) I'll stay on the pole I made 4m on but be a little more confident than when I tried 4.14m (13' 7") on it in Belton. http://www.bubbapv.com/Images/Movs/13-7.MOV Kirk will make this on the first jump and seal his win.

Of the big guys it's hard to pick a spot. Steve Hardison of the USA is hot or cold. If he's hot expect 4m or 4.10m. Allan Williams of Great Britain looked awesome in Sydney but didn't jump very high. I expect him to exceed his National Record by clearing 3.90m or 4m. Bill Murray of the USA is the greatest masters athlete as he has won worlds in the decathlon and gotten 2nd in the vault. He will go 3.90m or 4m. Kristjan Gissurarson of Iceland is a sure fire 3.80 to 4m as is Erno Mako of Hungary. The other wild card is Dan West of the USA. A good friend, Dan vaulted 4.20m (13' 9 1/4") when he was 50 but hurt his foot and is perfecting a style that allows him to take off of the opposite foot. Unorthodox but when he hits it it's BIG!

Based on the reality of my condition I hope to get in the top six. With me out at or after 3.80m I expect it to be;

• Kirk Bentz - Gold
• Steve Hardison/Allen Williams - Silver
• Bill Murray/Kristjan Gissurarson/Erno Mako/- Bronze

If one steps up then the other drops. As you know, someone always steps up and someone alway falls down at big meets. The only given is that Kirk wins. He jumped 4.15m (13' 7 1/4") just before he turned 55 last summer and has several meets over 4.10m (13' 5 1/4"). No one else is in that league. No slight to the other jumpers as I just don't know them, or know them well enough to predict.

I'm just hoping to survive it. If I'm in the game at 4m I have a chance for a medal but based on where I am today I can't make that prediction. TODAY, and each day forward, I can only focus on me and my training, and these videos of likely pole/run scenarios. In any case I will have fun.

One month from today I will be sitting in the hot tub at the Four Seasons at Whistler Mountain and I will go back and review these predictions. Thanks for your support and for joining me for this preview. Bubba